02199cam a2200241Ka 450000500170000000800410001702000180005803500210007604000680009704100080016510000270017324500950020026000480029530000510034349000240039449000450041850400530046350502580051652010790077465000500185365000410190365000130194420150604105636.0130624s2013    xxuad  frn    001 0 eng d  a9781461472179  a(OCoLC)849903512  aCO-BoUCMbspacJose A. Gerena (modificó)dAldemar Mondragón0 aeng1 aAbarbanel, Henry D. I.10aPredicting the futurebcompleting models of observed complex systemscHenry D.I. Abarbanel  aNueva York (Estados Unidos)bSpringerc2013  axvi, 238 páginasbilustraciones y gráficas0 aSpringer complexity0 aUnderstanding complex systemsx1860-0832  aIncluye referencias bibliográficas e índices00tAn Overview: The Challenge of Complex Systems --tExamples as a Guide to the Issues --tGeneral Formulation of Statistical Data Assimilation --tEvaluating the Path Integral --tTwin Experiments --tAnalysis of Experimental Data --tUnfinished Business.  aPredicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and other systematic investigations of complex systems. 7aAnálisis de sistemasxModelos matemáticos 7aInformáticaxModelos matemáticos 7aSistemas